By Bad news at the breakfast table: Your morning cup of coffee could soon be getting more expensive.
The benchmark that sets the global price of arabica coffee has more than doubled over the past year, with 25% of that surge coming since the start of 2025. For the first time, one pound of arabica costs more than $4 on commodity markets.
“Expect retail coffee prices to keep grinding higher,” Bank of America analysts recently warned, even with “consumers showing signs of price fatigue.”
The price run-up is largely driven by climate-change-fueled weather patterns that have disrupted agricultural production around the world. Chocolate prices are up sharply this year for similar reasons, with higher temperatures and rainfall levels spoiling cacao yields in West Africa.In key coffee-growing regions across South and Central America, Southeast Asia and East Africa, average temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing, lengthening and intensifying droughts in some places while boosting extreme flood events in others.
Brazil has been contending with its most severe drought in 70 years, causing water shortages and crop failures. In Vietnam, monthslong drought was followed by severe flooding last year during Typhoon Yagi, which brought extreme rainfall exacerbated by climate change. The two countries are the world’s top coffee producers, accounting for a combined 56% of global supplies.
